In addition to my long leading/ short leading/ coincident paradigm for forecasting expansions and recessions, I have a couple of fundamentals based alternative approaches that tell me how confident I should be.
Recent News
- Suspected chemical blast at Iran's Bandar Abbas port kills 14, injures hundreds
- Trump says US ships should be allowed to travel through the Panama and Suez canals for free
- Russia stocks higher at close of trade; MOEX Russia Index up 2.10%
- Trump and Zelenskiy meet one-on-one in Vatican basilica to seek Ukraine peace
- TikTok to enter Japan's e-commerce industry, Nikkei reports
- Young Canadians favor Conservatives in election despite Trump threat
- US could restrict Mexican livestock imports over screwworm worry, official says
- UroGen Announces Updated 18-Month Duration of Response (DOR) of 80.6% from the Phase 3 ENVISION Trial of UGN-102, an Investigational Treatment for Recurrent Low-Grade Intermediate-Risk Non-Muscle Inva
- Factbox-Major cases involving Trump before the US Supreme Court
- World Bank chief economist sounds alarm on emerging market debt issues, urges liberalization
- Concord Medical Files Annual Report on Form 20-F for Fiscal 2024
- US agency eases some self-driving safety rules, sending Tesla stock soaring
- US judge skeptical about Trump defense of Education Department layoffs
- NASA administrator was once arrested, accused of passing bad checks to casinos
- Ex-Taliban commander pleads guilty to taking US journalist hostage
- Loeb's Third Point builds stake in Band-Aid maker Kenvue
- Migrants deterred by Trump's border crackdown wait for UN help to return home
- Orbia announces the commencement of cash tender offer and consent solicitation
- Germany's Merck says in late-stage discussions to buy SpringWorks for $3.5 million
- Missile that killed 12 in Russian strike on Kyiv was North Korean, Zelenskiy says
- Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Provides Release Date for its 2025 First Quarter Results and Details of Annual Meeting of Stockholders
- Calian appoints Eric Demirian to its board
- Golden Dome missile defense gets $27 billion boost in GOP's defense package – Reuters
- Trump signs executive order boosting deep-sea mining industry
- T-Mobile wireless subscriber growth misses estimates as competition heats up
- BOJ will keep raising rates if inflation converge toward 2%, governor Ueda says
- Fed Kashkari cites trade policy uncertainty as a risk to jobs
- Gilead posts profit, says HIV prevention drug on track for mid-June
- Complaints about ransomware attacks on US infrastructure rise 9%, FBI says
- Bessent says China tariffs are not sustainable as US signals willingness to de-escalate
- Explainer-What happens to Apple and Meta after the EU fine?
- US brings first terrorism charges against alleged Venezuelan gang member
- Cantor teams up with Tether, Softbank for $3.6 billion crypto venture
- Bahrain's fiscal outlook downgraded to negative by S&P Global Ratings
- Lottomatica's rating raised to Ba2 by Moody's with stable outlook
- Martin Marietta Materials outlook shifts to stable, Moody's affirms Baa2 rating
- US cancels hundreds of grants for police, crime victims, Justice Dept documents show
- Stocks, dollar climb, gold sinks as US says China tariffs not sustainable
- Judges extend Venezuela deportation blocks, question Trump's use of wartime law
- Ethereum Climbs 10% In Bullish Trade
- Yale University explores sale of private equity fund interests
- US FAA takes action to prevent helicopter incidents near Las Vegas airport
- Baker Hughes beats first-quarter profit on strong demand for natural gas technology
- M&T Bank Corporation to Participate in the Barclays Americas Select Franchise Conference
- Oil prices settle up nearly 2% on new Iran sanctions, equities rally
- Tesla salvages first-quarter profit margins as car sales skid
- HII Hosts HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Leaders at Ingalls Shipbuilding
- ExxonMobil to Release First Quarter 2025 Financial Results
- Baker Tilly and Moss Adams to merge, forming sixth-largest US advisory CPA firm
- Pope Francis, first Latin American pontiff, dies after stroke and cardiac arrest