My K.I.S.S. forecast for the first half of 2018

At the outset of every year I lay out a forecast for each half.  My method of forecasting is pretty simple — in fact so simple, I call it the K.I.S.S. method.  Even though the Index of Leading Indicators is the statistic most denigrated by Wall Street forecasters, it has the inconvenient habit of being right more often than the highly-paid punditocracy, especially at turning points.